Clinton Bailey (pseudonym) has written a manuscript analysing the Mr Cruel crimes. This manuscript was originally written in 2014 and has been updated several times. He has provided the manuscript to the Victoria Police. It has not been published previously on the internet. Clinton has given me permission to publish sections of it here.
Melbourne Marvels 12 April 2021
After seeing a recent documentary on this case, I started to have several theories about who the suspect maybe and while searching for more information I came across your article (best source on the internet).
I think that the person may have worked at the school and may have even been a teacher. Both Nicola and Karmien went to the same affluent school and Mr.Cruel seems to knows the family structures well. This guy does seem unemployed but what if he was on a leave/holiday/day off during the attacks. He did attack Nicola on a school day however school was nearly over at that time so if a teacher didn’t show up for the last week or wanted to start ‘summer break’ a week earlier then that wouldn’t be a huge red flag.
A teacher or someone at the school would also be given prior information on a student’s departure which is given well in advance (i.e., enough time to plan an attack). This sicko chose Nicola in specific and clearly fantasized about her a lot. Perhaps he fantasized all through out the school year but fears of being caught prevented him from doing anything. However, he faces his last chance before his ‘dream girl’ moves far away so he acts on his impulses.
I read on your case file that while abducting Nicola he called her “Nicky”. This especially sticks out because he said it “WHILE ABDUCTING” her, meaning he didn’t just get this information from the media reports and it was something he knew of in advance. The name ‘Nicky’ was reserved to family and friends, the only family member he’s known to have crossed paths with is her sister but the girls were fast asleep (i.e., not talking to one another) when he entered the home. This leads me to believe he heard friends calling her “Nicky” while at school.
Mr.Cruel asked Nicola: “You think you’re worth $25,000?”
Interestingly, Primary school fees at Presbyterian Ladies’ College – Melbourne start at $18,248, secondary school fees start at $29,536
Also while at Nicola’s house he searched for money (probably knows their rich since they have the funds to send two daughters to an affluent school) because why would he waste time searching for money and risk getting caught unless he knew that the family is rich and should in fact have money.
Whats more, a Presbyterian Ladies College school uniform, t-shirt and jumper specifically were among items of clothing that the kidnapper took from Nicola’s bedroom. He mistakenly took a lot of Fionas clothes but the full school uniform he took did belong to Nicola as if he knew EXACTLY what it looked like perhaps because he’s constantly seen her wear it (at school) where he noticed unique stains or stitching and subconsciously knew that it was her uniform (not Fionas). Whats more strange is how he also knew the FULL outfit (including the jumper) it’s almost like he’s seen her wear the school uniform throughout different seasons. If it is someone from the school then he would fantasize about her while viewing her in her school clothes hence the role play (doing to her in his ‘kitchen’ what he wish he could’ve done in school).
On 13 April 1991 – He targeted 13 year old Karmien who went to the same school as Nikola.
Another reason as to why it could be a teacher (or someone from the school) is if Karmien somehow saw how he looked unmasked, she could’ve instantly recognized him and so he felt the need to kill her because he knew that if she got out she could confidently identity and name him.
Sources claim: “This offender had a specific interest in children, particularly those between the ages of 10-13 years. He selected children at a specific developmental stage”
Therefore, if someone at the school had a ‘fetish’ for 13-year olds he’d know exactly what classrooms (i.e., 8th grade classes) to search and find his ‘prey’.
Another factor that adds to this theory, Sharon was released eighteen hours later on the grounds of Bayswater High School and the way she was released was well thought-out/planned meaning the high school was specifically chosen by Mr.Cruel. A person who works at a school would know the ins and outs of how schools work and are also familiar with other schools within the district (not just their own).
However, I don’t think that it was a 8th grade teacher that both girls had because surely Nicola would’ve recognized the person’s voice.
I initially thought the principal could’ve easily been a prime suspect however I learned from your article that:
The Bendigo Advertiser stated in its article Dad’s plea to kidnapper: let Nicky (sic) come home quoted principal of Presbyterian Ladies’ College, William MacKay as saying that Nicola’s classmates were “in a profound state of shock”.
– This establishes an alibi and therefore can rule out the principal
I don’t think that it’s necessarily just a teacher but could be just about anyone at the school including counsellors, janitors, a priest, cook, a member of the school board… It is not just a typical school but also a day and boarding school that offers a wide range of extracurricular activities which entails countless employees of various trades/backgrounds. If the school employees a campus doctor or nurse then he could’ve easily assumed that role given how its speculated he’s in the medical field. It could also be a security guard.
He may have even showed up at the school pretending to be a priest or some other religious member or even a parent while scouting for victims. This is pretty much the only way he could be inside the school without being called out.
I wouldn’t completely knock out a teacher being a potential suspect as the current prime suspect is a university lecturer
Have you ever explored the possibility that it maybe someone who is a tailor or works in that industry/trade?
I did not know that the balaclava was hand made until I read your case file on Nicola. Even prior to this acknowledgement and assuming that it was store bought, I still found it strange especially for a male to posses the skills required to sew the balaclava’s eye and mouth openings (e.g., the dark green balaclava with stitching around the mouth and eyes in the Lynas abduction). So not only does he know how to knit but also sew?
He also hogtied Fiona with [what is believed to be] a clothesline wire which seems to be material that he is quiet familiar with and knows how to properly use. Similarly during one of the cases, he ordered the parents to enter a wardrobe which would imply that he has at least some knowledge on the space/capacity of a wardrobe at least to the point where he can confidently place 2 adults inside it.
He also dressed his victims up and paid very careful attention to the clothing they wore. Usually when rapists order the victim to dress up, the article of clothing they are provided with and forced to wear is typically lingerie/under garments. If he is a tailor/clothing maker [or someone similar] than that would imply he spends a lot of time [in general] envisioning various articles of clothing and also envisioning what piece of clothing would look good on an individual. So this may have subconsciously influenced his thoughts while fantasizing about Nicola. “He told her he was going to dress her in her tennis skirt the following day” before falling asleep; this shows an emphasis on clothing and how meticulous he is about it.
I haven’t considered a tailor before. I did think though that he might have learnt his knitting skills in prison.